American Defence Secretary Leon Panetta alleges that high ranking authorities within Pakistani Leadership were hiding Osama Bin Laden

Speaking to an American TV Channel American Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has revealed that the Obama Administration did not share in advance its covert military strike inside Pakistan to the Pakistani Government and the Pakistani Military because they had a hunch that the news would quickly travel to Osama Bin Laden to help him escape. Secretary Panetta continued to acknowledge that the Obama Administration and the Pentagon did not have any ‘hard evidence’ to support such views though.

This reveals a dangerous trend the United States has now established a track record of. This very hunch on behalf of the United States has seen tremendous pain and death for the Iraqi people. No Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) have ever been found in Iraq, the major cause of the American invasion. The decade long military occupation of Afghanistan by the United States has not made the situation any more stable for the Afghan people on the ground. The latest American attempt to over-power Iran over its energy oriented nuclear program now threatens to engulf the entire East Asian region including Pakistan and its neighbors including India and the Central Asian Republics (CARs) that comprise of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

What’s most terrifying is the thought that a ‘hunch’ has no pattern, no end and no sense of differentiation between right and wrong, friend and foe. It can be extremely beneficial and dramatically horrific. The world and especially the Asian countries can choose between living in fear or defending their sovereignty and people’s interest.

While the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) lead Federal Government has time and again demanded that its term in government be ensured to complete it has consistently failed on its promises to provide for the basic necessities of the common Pakistani: The sole rationale that justifies the continuity of a government. The sitting government of PPP has twice defaulted on its commitment to resolve the severe electricity shortfall which is equated at 1 watt supplied for every 2 watts demanded. Come winters in 2011 the energy shortfall got even severe with the practical stoppage of natural gas to homes and CNG fuel stations. Where the common Pakistani has suffered the most, critical damage has been sustained by the commercial sector with the massive closure of textile industry, a major export contributor, that provides jobs to hundreds of thousands. The textile sector is not the only sufferer though. The 8-14 hour electricity outage every single day of the week has significantly reduced the efficiency and productivity levels of the economy as a whole. Economic analysts have estimate a year on year loss of 3-4% GDP due to bad energy management by the current Government. Electricity and gas being the primary sources of energy to any country’s commercial engine are simply out of supply making Pakistan barely crawl into the year 2012.

With all this havoc being faced by the average Pakistani the PPP lead Government has been solely focusing on its political image and completion of its tenure in power that ends in early 2013. Is the PPP government gaining any political mileage out of its clinging with power? Seemingly not since PPP has  suffered serious political setback with the continuing resignations or dis-association by top PPP veteran leaders. Even the common masses including the PPP voters have publicly and on-media started to criticize the PPP Government. In-short the PPP’s brand of Democracy has indeed been the best Revenge but wrongly directed at the common man instead of undemocratic forces.

With 2012 being the election preparations year it seems highly unlikely that the public would be in the mood to hear any more promises from the PPP leadership. Surely enough the PPP leaders would avoid repeating their favorite political slogan thus far ‘Democracy is the best Revenge’. One cartoonist has his own way of visualizing how he interprets this now unpopular political slogan:

Democracy is the Best Revenge_Late Benazir Bhutto

United States Administration succumbs to holding negotiating deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan

It may even be seen as a political defeat for the United States after tens years of its desperate struggle in Afghanistan. The recent announcement to unite against the American and NATO forces by different Taliban factions, both big and small, has dealt a severe blow to the American morale; especially after they had started to talk of exiting Afghanistan starting in 2014. Despite possessing the best military technology and highly trained fighting soldiers the Americans and their NATO allies have consistently failed in concluding their mission in Afghanistan against much less trained and inferior fire-power of the Taliban groups.

Could this mean another 10 years in Afghanistan for Americans and their NATO allies? Would the NATO allies be actually supportive of an extended stay in Afghanistan?

President Obama’s recent announcement at the Pentagon to maintain American ‘Military Superiority’ in the Asia Pacific region actually conflicts with the on ground reality. The more pronounced intent on behalf of the US Administration to establish direct negotiations with the Taliban are widely seen as a proof of the weakening American resolve to successfully conclude what they had started. Many Afghans see this approach as a face-saving effort by the failing American Military action in Afghanistan.

A USSR like defeat? Perhaps not in terms of casualties and but definitely yes in terms of the humiliation by succumbing to the Taliban factions that may seem to be smaller and less equipped but that have definitely reigned large in terms of leaving an impact on the American War that has led to further destabilization of the region.

USAID - A Pakistani Soldier's Life in Dollars

Would the Americans take the same deal if this situation was reversed? If the Pakistani forces ‘by-mistake’ killed 24 of American troops?! Probably not.

But thinking in retrospect such an incident was imminent with Pakistan’s deteriorating image as that of a ‘Sovereign’ state. The Prime Minister Gilani lead PPP Government did little than lip-servicing and attempting to gain political mileage by continuously ‘condemning’ the drone strikes in Pakistani territory. The United States and the NATO forces had already established a compromised image of Pakistani sovereignty due to the weak play by the country’s government. Has the PPP lead Pakistani Government shown a solid stance over drone attacks and American intrusion into Pakistan to capture Osama Bin Ladin, chances are that the November 26 deaths of the 24 Pakistani soldiers could have been averted.

The latest statement issued by the American State Department deputy spokesperson Mark Toner did acknowledge the blunder by the US led NATO forces but consistently fell short of a clear-cut, unconditional apology to Pakistan, the families of the martyred Pakistani soldiers and the Pakistani people; “We accept responsibility for mistakes committed by the US side in the Nato air strike incident”. Mark Toner went on to state that the US was ready to monetarily compensate families of the martyred Pakistani soldiers.

It seems that the Americans claiming to be Pakistan’s closest ally in their war on terror in Afghanistan haven’t quite yet understood the Pakistani people. The Pakistani people are being alienated to the Americans and their cause in Afghanistan with every single passing day. The Obama Administration has recently done more to damage rather than build Pak-American relations as evident from popular public sentiment widely covered in the local and international media. The question now is whether the Obama Administration will pay heed to this conspicuously visible dissatisfaction by the Pakistani people or will they continue with their isolated agenda that will dangerously polarize the regional situation both in regional and global perspectives.

Musharraf's Ultimatum: Says he will return to Pakistan in 2012

His alarm has certainly attracted attention since his political opponents and political heavy-weights took some time off from the ongoing Memogate Scandal to indirectly issue warnings to his ultimatum.

Nawaz Sharif is a bitter opponent of Pervez Musharraf due to his forced exile for 8 years

Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz suddenly issued a statement to the media that he will steadfastly pursue the killers of the late Baloch leader Akbar Bugti. Pervez Musharraf is alleged to have ordered Bugti’s murder as leveled by his political opponents.

Pervez Musharraf has defended himself on several fronts including the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti in a re-conciliatory military operation gone-wrong. The case of Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) is also frequently used by the political opponents of Musharraf to accuse him of the killing of hundreds of religious students during the military operation that Musharraf had authorized to release the public mosque in the heart of Islamabad from armed terrorists. The ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has also alleged that Musharraf was complicit in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto by way of not providing sufficient security to her. No charge however has been proven against Musharraf in the court of law. Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) has continuously criticized Musharraf of wrongly involving Pakistan in America’s war in Afghanistan. This political section accuses Musharraf of adopting US influenced regional security policies that have deeply hurt Pakistan’s internal security, alienated its own people from the Northern border areas due to American Drone strikes that have killed thousands of innocent civilians in those areas.

Pervez Musharraf’s return sure is not an easy decision. Come January it should be expected that Musharraf may change his plans at the eleventh hour. It is popularly believed that he will face grave threat to his life and extreme political criticism and resistance to participate in the upcoming 2013 general elections. For now Musharraf has given the Ultimatum of his return and the immediate political response in opposition to him hints at a hidden fear by the political opponents that he may actually come back.

Prime Minister Gilani is accompanied by Pakistan Army Chief General Kiyani and ISI Chief Lt. General Pasha

The statement has come at the peak of the Memogate Scandal that was publicly seen as the reason for the widening rift between the PPP lead Government and the Pakistani Armed Forces. The Memogate Scandal is deemed to have targeted removal of Pakistani Defence Forces leadership in appeasement to the wishes of the American Administration. The backdrop to this recent development is also the sudden exit of President Zardari from Pakistan and his settlement in Dubai apparently for health reasons. Pakistani political parties have seen this move on part of President Zardari as evasive of the building pressure on the Memogate Scandal that resulted in the removal from office of Husain Haqqani, Zardari’s hand-picked Ambassador to the United States. President Zardari had recently shifted his Presidency staff to Dubai which is also highly unusual and unprecedented. Latest move by Zardari was summoning of Pakistan’s permanent representative to the United Nations Mr. Abdullah Hussain Haroon to his camp office in Dubai.

Stressful as it may seem, the single most suffering entity in this entire episode is neither the federal government nor the Armed Forces of Pakistan but the national image of Pakistan as a sovereign, stable and progressive state. All the sworn stakeholders of the national image must realize their utmost duty to safeguard and promote a positive image for Pakistan. This is possible only if all the stakeholders shift their focus from their isolated institutional image building to that of collective national image betterment.

The huge PTI rally in Lahore revealed the changing power balance in Pakistani politics

In the backdrop of the unprecedented tension in Pak-US relations the United States has expanded its out-reach to the political forces in Pakistan. Meetings of Ambassador Munter and PML-N and PPP leadership is a routine matter especially in times of trouble or a change in government. PPP and PML-N have a history of softer stance towards the White House. Which is why these two biggest political parties have avoided directly criticizing actions of the American Administration in the past. PTI’s Imran Khan however has remained vocally critical of the Obama Administration’s actions in Afghanistan and specifically intrusions into the Pakistani airspace and bombing of innocent Pakistani people through drone strikes. Imran Khan has always maintained that the United States and NATO must leave Afghanistan and Pakistan to deal with their issues themselves in their own way. Imran Khan has also maintained that the United States policy of aggression in Afghanistan and Pakistan has failed. United States itself has over the last few years acknowledged that it can not win the war in Afghanistan merely with military power and it needs to bring the local stakeholders including Taliban fighters to the negotiations table.

The contact attempt of the American Ambassador Cameron Munter with PTI Chief may have more significance to the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) than to PTI itself. Imran Khan’s statement post his meeting with Cameron Munter maintains PTI approach towards America’s war in Afghanistan, “….this partnership must not be at the cost of Pakistan’s national interest.” Imran Khan went on to demand that the United States must stop violating Pakistan’s sovereignty through drone attacks and other incursions inside its territory if it was interested in maintain friendly relations with the Pakistani people. This statement neither softens PTI’s earlier stance nor helps America and NATO in support for resumption of NATO supplies via Pakistan to Afghanistan. What it however does very effectively is that it draws the attention of PPP and PML-N back towards the American Administration. PPP’s Federal Government and PML-N as Opposition Leader have recently taken publicly popular stance over the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers in a NATO airstrike in the northern border area with Afghanistan. As a result the Federal Government suspended the NATO supplies to Afghanistan for unknown period which is hurting NATO’s confidence in Afghanistan. Adding to the political pressure surfaced the Memogate Scandal alleging that President Zardari and his close aide the hand-picked Pakistani Ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani were involved in toppling over the Pakistani military leadership in exchange for ensuring continuity of the weak Zardari Government. This sent the PPP Government looking for political cover which they only had in authenticating Pakistani Military’s publicly supported demand to suspend NATO supplies and arming its northern border air-defence. This ofcourse was not in US and NATO favor. Further the PML-N that stands to gain maximum political mileage out of this dead-end for the PPP also adopted the popular public demand and Nawaz Sharif went on to support the ban on NATO supplies. Nawaz Sharif was also reported to have cancelled/postponed his scheduled meeting with US Ambassador Cameron Munter in Islamabad quoting his engagement with the Supreme Court over the Memogate Scandal. The Obama Administration now sees its traditionally supportive political parties in PPP and PML-N drawing away from directly supporting the US interests and its Afghanistan war policy which puts the US in a pretty immobilized political condition. Obama Administrations reaching out to growing political players like the PTI or provincially limited political parties like the ANP and MQM at this juncture addresses this political support gap that exists with the PPP and the PML-N. How these traditional political supporters of the US policies in Pakistan and the region react in the after-match of such advances by the US needs to be closely watched.

Prior to today’s statement by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, there existed no popular precedence in modern history in which the President of a Country would fail to get access to ‘safe’ medical treatment for himself in his own country. President Zardari’s sudden exit from Pakistan and admittance to the American Hospital in Dubai for treatment is a great jolt to the Presidency’s image. The very national image of Pakistan is in jeopardy of which the President of Pakistan is a sworn custodian.

Zardari is in Dubai for Heart Treatment and Tests since early December 2011

Pakistani public’s displeasure with President Zardari’s representation of his country has always made headlines. Zardari was strongly criticized by the masses when during the worst floods in Pakistani modern history the President instead of holding fort chose to go for a euro-tour. The Government machinery claimed that Zardari’s euro-tour was aimed at generating support for Pakistan but nothing considerable actually happened that could be linked directly to Zardari’s tour. Pakistani public has questioned the self-imposed confinement of Asif Zardari within the Presidency outside of which he is rarely if ever reported participating in any official activities. If at all President Zardari has moved out to it has been either his home town of Garhi Khuda Bukhsh in Sind or on foreign tours.

The latest addition to this history of Zardari’s Presidency is the Memogate Scandal. The Supreme Court had ordered Memogate stakeholders, including President Zardari, to submit their responses by December 15, 2011. Despite being declared in good health by the able specialist doctors of the prestigious Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology (AFIC) in Rawalpindi cantonment, President Zardari thought it best to leave the country and trust the American Hospital in Dubai. The message it gives to the Pakistani people is very wrong: The very custodian of national honor and entrusted with ensuring the best possible health care for the Pakistani people himself does not trust the very best of his country’s doctors. Not only that but President Zardari does not even considers himself safe amidst the top level security provided to anyone in Pakistan. President Zardari or his Government do not seem to understand how badly do these decisions tarnish the national image of Pakistan.

The PPP government must realize the mistakes they are continually committing unless their momentum has made it too difficult for them to see where they are headed.

US RQ-170 Sentinel Drone deployed by America for spying over Iran

Iran’s stance is very simple: First Americans violate all international laws to fly a spy drone over Iranian airspace, then the US Administration has the nerve to ask Iran to return the drone and still offer no apology. Iran says that the Lockheed Martin manufactured RQ-170 Sentinel has penetrated around 250 kilometers into the Iranian airspace when it was spotted by the Iranian Air Defense. Iran  further claims that its cyber-war wing of the Revolutionary Guard then launched a hack-attack that penetrated into the control feature of the drone eventually bringing the aircraft in Iranian control who then landed it with minimum damage. Iran now plans to decode the Sentinel Drone’s software and reverse engineer the drone technology. Whether it will do it all alone or get other countries involved remains to be seen. Possible contenders, covertly so, that can actually take a serious shot at reverse engineering the drone could be the Chinese or the Russians.

RQ-170 Sentinel Spy Drone was 250 kilometers into the Iranian Airspace before the US Military lost its control to the Iranians

The question however is that how would this capture and its reverse engineering, even to the level of decoding the stealth feature can alter America’s drone development program or for that matter most of its stealth technology based gadgets. Further how would such a success on Iran’s part will affect America’s drone assisted covert operations and drone guided conventional wars across the world, especially Afghanistan and Pakistan. Wouldn’t Pakistan be thoroughly interested in knowing better on how to down or even technologically jeopardize such missions over its airspace in the northern areas. Only time will tell.

Technical Specifications of the RQ-170 Sentinel Spy Drone

For now, Iranians are mighty happy with their prized catch of the American RQ-170 Sentinel spy Drone.

Asif Zardari decided the fate of Pakistan People's Party by putting his British raised son Bilawal Zardari with his late mother's picture in his lap

President Zardari is so important because he is the father of the Chairman of the PPP; Bilawal Zardari, the son of the late Benazir Bhutto. Because of the emotional bond the core party workers may have for their late leader’s son and other children, Zardari carries the power to decide the future of the PPP. The reason why the veteran PPP leadership took to the sidelines after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination was not that they did not have the influence to lead the party but because they feared any resistance to Zardari’s bid to take over the party on the basis of Benazir Bhutto’s children could result into a breakup of the PPP and PPP would seize to exist as a major national party. That very concern remains still. The PPP is not essentially trying to save Zardari but the party itself and if extremely generalized, the democracy.

With so much negative reputation for PPP simply due to the association of Zardari with the party, Zardari’s reputation as Mr.10% and his latest ‘Memogate Scandal’, it would but seem reasonable for the PPP to consider his removal from the PPP office. Given the historically difficult relationship of the PPP nominated Prime Minister with the Presidency (for very different reasons though), PPP could have moved a motion to oust the sitting President to save party image. The cost the veteran PPP leadership sees in doing this is far too great than the benefit. It is risking party division vs. person specific bad image.

With the sudden arrival of Bilawal Zardari in Islamabad and the rush meeting of the PPP leadership goes to re-enforce Zardari’s plans to maintain control over PPP’s leadership and thus his Presidency.